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Estimating the discrete probability distribution of the age characteristic of Veteran populations using SAS®, SAS/OR® and SAS Simulation Studio® for use in population projection models

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Abstract

This paper examines the discrete probability distribution of the age characteristic of the Veteran population in the US. The basis of the examination is the American Community Survey (ACS) and the Social Security Administrations (SSA) period life table for males in 2007. The ACS is stratified to efficiently represent population elements including the population of Veterans. The current Veteran population discrete probability distribution for age is examined as a starting point. The survey also supports examining the expected future age of Veteran discrete probability distributions. The paper will show how to use an efficiently designed stratified survey (the 1 year ACS) to support a simulation that moves that population into the future and provides a basis for estimating future population age distributions and their consequent impact on organization cost and budget planning. Combining the processing of stratified survey data with Operations Research tools (like the discrete event simulator) and supporting subsequent analysis of results is a combined capability that is not matched elsewhere.

Online Files

The updated paper here 48_Paper.pdf

The presentation here MWSUG2012_Presentation_Template_v3.pdf

The model here popBayes2010.zip including code to calculate conditional probabilities

The sas code for input distribution here distributions2010.zip

An immutable copy of these files here http://www.mcg-ct.com/saspaper2/

Contact Info

Mike Grierson
Operations Research Analyst
mcg@mcg-ct.com
www.mcg-ct.com.